It is understood that the price of large-size LCD panels is also "slowing down" in August, the price of notebook panels has dropped by about 6%, and the price of monitor panels has fallen by less than 10% (Figure 1). For the TV panel, the size below 37 inches has dropped by about 5%. Among the 40-inch and above sizes, the CCFL backlight panel fell by 2 to 3%, and the LED backlight panel fell by 1 to 5%, which continued to show significant changes since the decline in July (Figure 2).
After the price decline in the second quarter in 2010, the overall decline in TV panel prices was 7-10%, and the price of panels for IT (laptops and monitors) fell by more than 15%. Therefore, after the price collapse in July, panel makers have tightened the panel operating rate to compress supply, resulting in a relatively tight supply situation, thereby curbing the price decline. In terms of supply capacity, panel makers with an operating rate of less than 80% in August are mainly centered on Taiwanese manufacturers, and some of them also have time-limited production lines.
One reason for this price decline is that Korean panel makers who own the whole brand have actively maintained high operating rates and launched cheap offensives, accelerating the price decline. However, this did not evoke the current panel demand, but not only inhibited the expansion of panel production capacity, but also led to the adoption of the policy of lowering the operating rate after entering September.
According to previous years' practice, it is now the demand period for back-to-school (mainly in the new semester in North America and other regions) and the commercial war at the end of the year. In 2010, panel demand not only did not appear hot, but continued to fall. The biggest reason is that the strong supply plan set by the whole machine manufacturer based on the economic recovery has deviated from reality. At present, the supply chain of "panel manufacturers - complete machine manufacturers - sellers" has an overstock problem, so the whole machine manufacturers and sellers have placed the reduction of the panel and the inventory level of the whole machine in a priority position. Therefore, the demand for the whole machine at the end of the year did not bring new panel demand. It takes weeks to get the inventory level of the entire industry to the right level, and October is the peak period of panel demand, followed by the recession of demand, so it is estimated that there will be no hot panel demand before the end of the year. Situation.
As for the actual demand of the whole machine, the current economic recovery is still relatively slow, so it still cannot be said to be a situation of full recovery of demand. Large-scale complete machine manufacturers have introduced countermeasures for panel makers to provide market development funds (MDF: Market Development Fund) to adjust the price of the machine and wake up the demand, but for now the effect is still limited.
The current price volatility, in our forecast blueprint, is moving along the fastest mode of decline. The price of some IT panels has fallen to near the level of cash costs.
As for future price forecasts, if the excess panel and machine inventory levels are adjusted, and the new panel inventory increase for 2011 is as obvious as the end of 2009, it is expected that the panel price will rise in time. The period is expected to be around January to February 2011.
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