Whether or not the used car market is flourishing is closely related to the number of cars. At present, although the growth of sales of new energy vehicles in China is rapid, it is still too small to maintain the climate, and it is still unable to support a new category. According to statistics, the number of new energy vehicles sold in China last year was about 500,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume was close to one million units, which is still too small compared to the total number of gasoline vehicles in the country that are nearly 200 million units.
After two or three years of opening, new energy vehicles want to change their discount rates by as much as 70%. Even so, they are far less efficient than gasoline vehicles in the market. At present, in the used car market, the proportion of new energy vehicles that can be reached within one month after being put on the shelves is less than 10%, and at least 40% of used gasoline vehicles can achieve the current month's trading. This is the data obtained by Beijing Youth Daily reporters when interviewing the used car market.
However, the scene in the new car market is completely different. In recent years, as local governments have vigorously subsidized new energy vehicles, more and more people have begun to try new energy vehicles as a travel tool. Especially in a city like Beijing, buying new energy vehicles can not only enjoy the dual subsidies from local governments and auto manufacturers, but also can leap over a long shake to wait for faster car qualifications. This year, Beijing has a quota of 60,000 cars for new energy cars, of which 51,000 are personal indicators for ordinary consumers, which are issued on a "first-come, first-served basis" basis. According to the data released in the latest issue of Beijing, the individual new energy vehicle indicators as of April 26 have been fully configured. The one-year indicator has been used up for only over three months, which indicates that the new energy vehicles are sought after.
“Beijing is considered to be the country with the most promotion of new energy vehicles in the country. New energy vehicles that enter the Beijing catalogue can usually account for 56 percent of the country’s sales in Beijing, and a higher proportion of big brands like BYD and BAIC New Energy. “New energy car professionals have told reporters that with the rise of new energy vehicles in the first-tier cities, the demand in the second and third-tier cities is also heating up.
on site
Up to one or two people a day inquire about new energy vehicles
The highly sought-after new energy vehicles in the first-class new car market have become invisible in the second-hand old-car market and have performed dismally. The reporter learned from a number of second-hand car dealers in Beijing that the number of second-hand new energy vehicles in the auto market is very small, which is usually only in the single digits, and the sales situation is not optimistic. Not only the number is small, but the transaction of second-hand new energy vehicles is also obviously cold. According to a staff member of Huaxiang Automobile Trading Market, the number of second-hand new energy vehicles operating here is very small, and car dealers are not active. Even some car dealers that have tried to use second-hand new energy vehicles have been working for some time. The main reason for withdrawal is that few customers are interested. Many car dealers here all stated that ten people who came to buy second-hand cars could not keep up with one to ask about new energy vehicles. At most one or two people inquiries a day, “The main reason is that the special nature of new energy vehicles determines the demand for used cars. Quite a minority."
The reporter saw that the second-hand new energy vehicles currently on sale in the used car market were basically open for two or three years, mainly BYD and Beiqi. The price of these vehicles is about 780,000 yuan, which is about 50% less than the actual purchase price. If we counted about 50% of the purchase subsidies originally, and restore the original sales price of 200,000 manufacturers, these two or three The discount rate of second-hand new energy vehicles is about 70%, which is much higher than the discount rate of gasoline vehicles with the same number of years and price. The reporter learned from a used car dealer that the current discount rate for gasoline vehicles is usually 15% in the first year, 10% in the second year, and 7% to 8% in the third year, which is only about 30% for three years in total. The hedge rate is significantly higher than that of new energy vehicles. This is very reluctant to sell second-hand new energy vehicles to car dealers. The high discount rate leads to very low profits, and even in their hands also fell.
In the country’s largest used car platform, the melon seeds used cars are sold directly on the Internet. Although the individual-to-individual trading model is completely adopted and the benefit is used to manipulate the used car dealers, reporters logged in to the platform and found that the amount of second-hand new energy vehicles used is on-line. It is also minimal. Of the more than 100,000 used car information, there are only about 1,000 new energy vehicles and the proportion is only 1%. Moreover, these more than 1,000 new energy vehicles also include hybrid vehicles. If the number of pure electric vehicles alone is even smaller.
Similarly, the sales of new energy vehicles on the used cars of melon seeds are not optimistic. The proportion of gasoline vehicles that are traded in the month after the launch of the petrol vehicles is extremely high, and most of them can be sold within one or two months. However, new energy vehicles are used. The heat is obviously not enough, usually less than 10% sold in the month. The big data system of the used car of Guazi clearly shows the difference between the petrol car and the new energy car in the secondary market.
Follow up
Second-hand new energy vehicle price assessment "water too deep"
In an interview, the reporter learned that many people in the industry allege that the “water is too deep†in the second-hand new energy auto industry is the key to assessing the value of the car's residual value is still a big problem, not only to people who buy a car feel a headache Even the car dealers who have used the used car business all the year often have a look.
An industry source told reporters that the current assessment of the price of used gasoline vehicles in the industry is relatively mature, most car dealers are usually specializing in a few brands or even a few models, practice has formed a self-assessment system, they often Through the basic conditions of a car's model, age, vehicle condition, etc., the residual value of the vehicle can be quickly evaluated and the price can be given. "As long as it is not intentional, the basic assessment prices of all households are almost the same, the difference is whether the car dealers want to make more or less difference!" The person told reporters that the valuation system of used gasoline vehicles in the circle has been It is more transparent, and like a professional platform, it has formed a complete price evaluation system for used gasoline vehicles. For example, a used car with seeds and melons has even developed a system that automatically evaluates prices through big data. It also removes the subjective factors of the last remaining people of car dealers. .
Although the valuation system for gasoline vehicles is relatively mature, the evaluation of the residual value of second-hand new energy vehicles is still a big problem for all parties. "On the one hand, there is little experience and there is not enough experience for the vehicle condition after a long time of use." Wang Xiaoyu, vice president of Kuizi used vehicle direct sales network, told reporters that in order to welcome the peak of the upcoming second-hand new energy vehicles, they started from last year. New energy vehicles are listed separately from the existing big data systems for continuous monitoring, but he admitted that the analysis of big data systems requires a sufficient number of samples to support it. The analysis statistics from the current few thousand vehicles are not enough to get gasoline-like. Car as accurate analysis results.
Focused
Difficult to assess battery performance plagued second-hand new energy vehicles
"Now the gasoline engine life is basically up to twenty years or more, so for most used cars, this is not the focus of the assessment; for new energy vehicles, how long will it take to buy back the battery? The sudden acceleration of the attenuation affects the normal use, and it becomes a big problem!†The reporter interviewed a number of second-hand car dealers. The other party said that they currently have no experience in judging battery performance. This is the core issue in the evaluation of the price of second-hand new energy vehicles. How much money a second-hand new energy vehicle can cost, and how long the battery can be used normally is the most important factor.
It is understood that although many new energy auto companies promise consumers that their battery life and warranty can reach 10 years, taking into account the comprehensive factors such as the use of the environment, the current industry consensus is that the average life of a power battery is 5 years. Judging from the use value of used cars, the general view of normal life of batteries in new energy vehicles in the industry is 3 years.
“The valuation of second-hand new energy vehicles can be judged not based on age and mileage alone.†Wang Xiaoyu said that the difference in vehicle use environment has a great influence on the battery life of the future. If the same vehicle is used at a low temperature for a long time in the northeast, Wang Xiaoyu said. , Or in the warm South, after the same number of years, the battery performance is quite different, and it is difficult to judge. "What we can do now is to track as much as possible the use data of some second-hand new energy vehicles and track their performance for a period of time. The resulting big data can provide experience for future assessments, such as which brands The decay of the car's battery after a certain number of kilometers or more began to accelerate and so on."
In fact, a number of car dealers have told reporters that many customers who come to consult and sell cars now have been in the car for 3 years. They have started to worry about continuing to use batteries. Old car.
It is precisely because of this that industry insiders also suggest that consumers who plan to buy second-hand new energy vehicles must consult a professional agency to do relevant inspections on vehicles before buying a car, especially focusing on the condition of the battery, and not just like buying a used gasoline car. Focus on mileage and age. The conditional car buyers should have a certain understanding of the previous owner's usage and driving habits, which is of great value for judging the battery life of the future. In addition, he particularly reminded consumers that regardless of whether they purchase new or used new energy vehicles, they must have a thorough understanding of the way they will use and maintain them in the future. They only think that they can adapt to the purchase again, and that they will not be able to adapt to it after a while. Abandoning, after all, the high discount rate of new energy vehicles will bring a considerable loss to the user.
analysis
The secondary market for new energy vehicles has not yet formed
"Obviously, currently used second-hand new energy vehicles on the market are not really into re-circulating vehicles. This is obviously different from gasoline vehicles." There are used car dealers telling reporters that the current use of new energy vehicles are basically ready to sell. Only a year or two later, many car owners are thinking about upgrading and planning to sell cars, and some car owners are still open for some time after the new energy vehicles still feel uncomfortable to decide to give up.
The car dealer stated that he had several customers trying to sell his new energy car. The reason was that the family finally got into a petrol car. They often felt that the gasoline car was more adaptable. From this point of view, the second-hand new energy vehicles currently being traded on the market are still not the result of real replacement.
In this regard, Wang Xiaoyu also stated that the prosperity of the used car market is closely related to the ownership of cars. Although sales of new energy vehicles in China are growing rapidly, they are still too small, and it is difficult to form a climate. New category. According to statistics, the number of new energy vehicles sold in China last year was about 500,000 units, and the cumulative sales volume was close to one million units, which is still too small compared to the total number of gasoline vehicles in the country, which is nearly 200 million units. In addition, he said that China's new energy vehicles are only developed in the past two or three years, most of the cars are in the stage of use two or three years, far from the peak of second-hand transactions.
Up to now, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 1 million units. According to relevant plans, by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 5 million units. According to the industry's arguments, the used car market will really enter a period of prosperity when the holdings are between 5 million and 10 million. This means that China's second-hand new energy vehicle market will really start in another three to four years. Therefore, how to develop this new market will also be the homework for all used car dealers in the coming years.
attention
New energy vehicle waste battery processing to be standardized
On the one hand, the problem of battery life has caused second-hand new energy vehicles to fail to be sold or sold. At the same time, it has also raised concerns about how to dispose of used batteries for new energy vehicles. According to the plan, China’s cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million units by 2020. According to the forecast of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the accumulated scrap of automobile power batteries in China will reach 120,000 to 170,000 tons at that time. However, if these batteries are not subject to standardized recovery and disposal, waste power lithium batteries will generate waste gas, waste liquids, and waste residues during the dismantling process, causing environmental pollution, and the formation of new energy vehicles “environmentally friendly and more polluting after being drivenâ€. Dilemma.
According to reports, as early as April 2015, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries jointly issued the “Notice on the Financial Support Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles 2016-2020†and other documents, stipulating that automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers should Take responsibility for the main responsibility of power battery recycling. In fact, last year, China’s cumulative production of power batteries was about 25.25 billion watt-hours, and the total amount of waste batteries that actually entered the dismantling and recycling process was less than 10,000 tons. Nearly 84% of the scrapped batteries were still left in the hands of car companies. In addition to the need for processing itself, due to the relatively large size and high energy density of the power battery of new energy vehicles, it is also dangerous during the recycling process. For example, the state of waste batteries may be unstable, and damage, leakage, etc. may occur during transportation. The situation, if not packaged and safely handled, is likely to cause a short circuit, fire, or even an explosion.
According to the manufacturer of recycled lithium iron phosphate battery, the current standardized recycling cost of 1 ton of waste lithium iron phosphate battery is 8540 yuan, and the value of recycled materials obtained from it is about 8110 yuan, and the loss is 430 yuan per ton. Profitability is possible, so a large number of small workshops that do not have the technical and environmental protection capabilities are becoming the main force in the recycling of waste batteries for vehicles. Therefore, the entire "green industry chain" of new energy vehicles still needs to be perfected so that green can penetrate this industry from beginning to end.
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