On May 11, Premier Li Keqiang visited Toyota Motor’s Hokkaido plant and visited the company’s fuel cell vehicle Mirai.
The Prime Minister visited Toyota Motor's Hokkaido plant
Kyodo News quoted sources from the Japanese government as saying that the inspection of the factory was initiated by China. Since Deng Xiaoping's visit to the United States, Chinese leaders have liked to visit the most advanced things in other countries. It is not surprising.
However, this can't stop the "imaginative" netizens. Some people arrange that the Prime Minister is very dissatisfied with the current electric cars. There are also speculations that China will switch to supporting fuel cell vehicles. OK, if we have to discuss fuel cells, the real question is, can China (than originally planned) accelerate the application of fuel cell vehicles?
The possibility is very small.
A small goal: 5000 vehicles in 2020When discussing hydrogen fuel cells, some people are accustomed to contrast them with electric vehicles. However, China's new energy vehicle route includes fuel cell vehicles, but the promotion target time is later than that of electric vehicles, and the scale of promotion is much smaller than that of electric vehicles.
China's new energy vehicle routes include fuel cell vehicles
On May 12, 2016, the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Interpretation of "Made in China 2025": Promoting the Development of Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as "Interpretation of "Made in China 2025"), which pointed out that by 2020 In 2010, 1,000 fuel cell vehicles will be produced and put into demonstration operation; by 2025, supporting infrastructure such as hydrogen production and refueling will be basically complete, and fuel cell vehicles will achieve regional small-scale operation.
However, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" released on November 2, 2017 (the roadmap is commissioned by the National Manufacturing Power Construction Strategy Advisory Committee and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and is produced by the Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers, hereinafter referred to as " In the Road Map), this goal has been improved.
The "Roadmap" clarifies the development goals of fuel cell vehicles: 5,000 vehicles will be developed in 2020, 50,000 vehicles and one million vehicles will be reached in 2025 and 2030 respectively.
Although this figure is five times the promotion goal of fuel cell vehicles in the interpretation of "Made in China 2025", the roadmap shows that China's total number of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million in 2020. In contrast, the goal of fuel cell vehicles is still much smaller.
A consensus: fuel cell vehicles should be first used in commercial vehiclesThe promotion of fuel cell vehicles is difficult and slow, which is a worldwide problem. Take the United States as an example. Toyota sold more than 3,000 Mirai in California before the end of January this year; in April this year, the sales of fuel cell vehicles in the United States were only more than 200, which was far below market demand.
The technical route, infrastructure construction, and policy support of fuel cell vehicles have always been disputed by all parties. However, there is a consensus in the industry: At present, fuel cell vehicles are suitable for commercial vehicles first.
Distribution of domestic fuel cell vehicles in 2017
Shen Haoming, an employee of SAIC Motor, stated in "SAIC Motor" on April 10 that according to statistics, in 2017, a total of 22 fuel cell commercial vehicles from 10 auto companies across the country entered the newly released recommended catalog that year, and the most models were city buses. . In 2017, the national output of fuel cell commercial vehicles was 1,226, of which logistics vehicles were the largest.
Foton Ouhui Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus
The latest Chinese automobile announcement shows that there are currently 25 fuel cell vehicle announcements nationwide. Except for a car announcement by SAIC Roewe, the remaining 24 are commercial vehicles.
SAIC Roewe 950 fuel cell vehicle
An industry insider who asked not to be named stated that diesel commercial vehicles are the only models that can be replaced by fuel cell vehicles in the future, especially large transport vehicles. He said that traditional diesel commercial vehicles have a lot of emissions and pollution, and the replacement of electric vehicles is limited by the number of batteries. Therefore, fuel cell vehicles may be a solution; "For the passenger car market, we have not seen (fuel cell vehicles) for the time being. The possibility of replacing electric vehicles".
Wang Chaoyun, general manager and founder of Tomorrow Hydrogen Energy, at the factory groundbreaking ceremony
Wang Chaoyun, general manager of Tomorrow Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd., also told the "Electric Vehicle Observer", "On the R&D side alone, (fuel cell) commercial vehicles have matured, and it will take 3 to five years for industrialization to become popular. The replacement takes time."
Subsidy: I ​​want to say that loving you is not easyState subsidies are one of the focuses of the industry's debate on fuel cell vehicles.
The interpretation of "Made in China 2025" stated that through taxation, subsidies and other incentive policies, the scale application of hybrid power systems will be strengthened; the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be promoted; the charging infrastructure guarantee system will be improved and hydrogen production, storage, and hydrogen refueling will be accelerated. System.
With the implementation of the new energy financial subsidy retreat mechanism, the subsidy for electric vehicles will be fully withdrawn after 2020. The fuel cell vehicle subsidy remains unchanged, including the 500,000 yuan subsidy from the central government and various local subsidies.
In addition, the state once granted a subsidy of 4 million yuan for each new fuel cell vehicle hydrogen refueling station that meets the national technical standards and has a daily hydrogen refueling capacity of not less than 200 kg from 2013 to 2015. But at present, the new subsidy policy has not yet been introduced.
For government subsidies, fuel cell and fuel cell vehicle companies are very welcome.
2017 Guangzhou Auto Show SAIC MAXUS FCV80 fuel cell vehicle two-level subsidy of 1 million
At the “10th China Automotive Blue Book Forum†held from May 11 to 12, Hao Jingxian, director of SAIC’s Chase Technology Center, said, “In terms of commuter cars, we can basically do the same with our traditional energy The price of the car is about the same."
How to subsidize? Wang Chaoyun said, “Hydrogen energy involves the transformation of basic energy, so I hope to fight for subsidies outside the automotive industry, such as combined heat and power, which the EU does.â€
SAIC recommends that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles continue to be subsidized and supported after 2020, and gradually decline; appropriate subsidies and support for vehicle hydrogen costs. In addition, the policy of 4 million yuan subsidy for each hydrogen refueling station should be restored as soon as possible to encourage social capital to intervene and develop rapidly.
Not everyone agrees with the current subsidy policy. The industry insiders mentioned above believe that the state (subsidies) should invest heavily in the research and development of fuel cells and fuel cell vehicles, which can be invested until the vehicles can be mass-produced, rather than invested in the industry. He said, "If an industry depends on subsidies, then the industry is unhealthy."
Hydrogen fuel cell: clean or not? this is a problemThe interpretation of "Made in China 2025" defines a fuel cell vehicle as a vehicle that uses hydrogen and oxygen in the air under the action of a catalyst to generate electricity from the electrochemical reaction in the fuel cell as the main power source.
Since the final emission is water, fuel cell vehicles have long been regarded as an ideal clean energy vehicle, and some even call it the "ultimate new energy power solution."
In response to this argument, the industry insiders mentioned above stated that although fuel cell vehicles emit water, in terms of the full life cycle, hydrogen fuel cells emit far more carbon dioxide than power batteries. He said that the main hydrogen production methods currently used, such as electrolysis of water, consume too much energy. Therefore, the full life cycle of hydrogen fuel cells is not environmentally friendly.
However, the industry insider also said that as China's energy continues to become cleaner, carbon dioxide emissions are getting smaller and smaller, the proportion of renewable energy (accounting for total energy) is getting higher and higher, and electrolytic hydrogen will also become cleaner. .
If you have to add a time limit to the industrialization of fuel cell passenger vehicles, how many years is it possible?
The "Roadmap" clearly pointed out that in 2025, large-scale applications will be realized in urban private vehicles and public service vehicles, reaching a scale of 50,000; in 2030, large-scale promotion will be realized in the areas of private passenger cars and large commercial vehicles, reaching 100%. 10,000 vehicles scale.
This time plan is basically consistent with Wang Chaoyun's judgment. He said, (fuel cell) passenger car research and development takes 2 to 3 years, industrialization takes 5 to 8 years, and mass popularization takes more than 10 years or even longer. However, in the opinion of the industry insiders above, if a time limit must be added to the industrialization of fuel cell passenger vehicles, it will take 20 years or more.
Sooner or later, Wang Chaoyun said, “In terms of the technical route, (Chinese fuel cell vehicles) are already on the road and it is unstoppable.â€
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