Hotspots and development trends of wireless communication technology
[Abstract] Due to the contradiction between the bandwidth requirements of wireless communication networks and the insufficient bandwidth of mobile networks, the contradiction between the geographical distribution of users and the imbalance of application requirements, and the contradiction between different technical advantages and deficiencies, it is decided that the development of wireless communication networks needs to be integrated Use a variety of technical means, from the overall and long-term perspective, adopt an integrated approach to planning and construction of the network. Give play to the individuality of different technologies, comprehensive layout, solve the different needs of different regions and different user groups for bandwidth and business, and achieve the overall advantages and comprehensive capabilities of wireless communication networks. In this regard, China's government management department should also actively allocate sufficient spectrum resources to operators to provide strong support and guarantee for their comprehensive planning.
(Text) 1. Global Trends: Public Mobile Keeps Growing Broadband wireless hotspots Today, two prominent characteristics of the global wireless communications industry are reflected in: First, public mobile communications maintain growth, some countries and regions have strong growth, but there are developments The phenomenon of imbalance; second, the continuous hotspot of broadband wireless communication technology, research and application are very active.
The data shows that in the context of the generally low-key global telecommunications market, mobile communications still maintains a good growth trend. Statistics show that the growth rate of global mobile subscribers in 2003 was more than 17%, reaching a total of 1.354 billion households. In terms of market value, the global mobile business market reached 468 billion euros in 2003, an increase of more than 11.3% over the previous year.
Although the global mobile market is growing, this growth has also shown a great imbalance. From the perspective of the number of users, in developed countries and regions such as North America and Europe, the number of new users is decreasing due to the high penetration rate of mobile users; and in regions such as Asia and Africa, especially developing countries like China The number of mobile users has grown rapidly. From the perspective of the value created by users, the ARPU value of developed countries in Europe and America far exceeds that of emerging developing countries. From the perspective of the growth of the new data service market, South Korea and Japan have shown an explosive trend and have become a new hotspot in the development of global mobile communications.
At present, China's mobile communication market is showing continued and rapid growth. As of the end of April, the total number of mobile users reached 296 million, and the user penetration rate reached 20.9%. Considering the situation of idle recharge cards and one-person dual-machine, China's mobile communications still have a considerable and long-term growth space due to the relatively low user penetration rate. However, China's mobile communications field has entered an era of full competition, and GSM, CDMA and even PHS networks are fiercely competing for users. This has led to a decline in tariffs and a decline in the ARPU of users. At present, China's GPRS, CDMA 1X and other 2.5G data services are developing well, and have gradually cultivated user groups. While 3G is still in the stage of technology testing, the government remains cautious.
In addition to traditional public mobile communications, recent research and application of broadband wireless access in the world are very active, and hot spots are constantly emerging, bringing a fresh air to the wireless communications industry. This includes broadband fixed wireless access technology, WLAN technology, WiMAX technology, UWB technology, etc., showing the situation of blooming flowers. The emergence and development of these technologies have injected vitality into the entire wireless communications industry.
2. Hotspot analysis: The five technologies lead the trendy application mode. The directors of the exhibitions gave a brief introduction to the development of the global wireless communication field. The following will focus on the current wireless communication field focus issues and hotspot technology. analysis. It mainly includes 5 hotspots such as 3G, 3.5GHz MMDS, WLAN, WiMax, UWB and so on.
1. 3G
Today, the third generation mobile communication 3G is particularly eye-catching and has become the biggest hot spot in the wireless communication industry.
First of all, from a technical point of view, 3G mainstream technology is basically mature. Due to the smooth evolution of the technology itself, cdma2000 has little barriers to entering 3G. WCDMA was affected by the continuous update of the version before, which hindered the commercial process, but the main standard has been finalized and has the basis for large-scale commercial use. TD-SCDMA technology is relatively lagging behind.
In general, the current 3G technology has been able to support large-scale commercial network deployment.
Secondly, operators such as Europe and America have entered the stage of 3G network deployment. The commercial deployment of 3G networks is spreading step by step around the world. As of the end of March 2004, as far as WCDMA is concerned, 120 licenses have been issued worldwide and 91 commercial deployment contracts have been signed. At present, more than 20 networks have been put into commercial use, and it is expected that the total number will exceed 40 by the end of 2004. At present, two South Korean operators STK and KTF are using cdma2000 1x EV-DO. Japanese KDDI has also begun commercialization of EV-DO networks, and Verizon is also about to participate in the deployment of 3G networks under this standard.
It should be said that 2004 has entered the year of global commercial deployment of 3G.
Third, the number of 3G users of some operators has begun to show rapid growth. NTT DoCoMo, the earliest launcher of 3G commercial services, recently announced that their total number of 3G users has grown to the 3 million mark within just two months of breaking through 2 million users. In the second half of May, Hutchison Whampoa stated that in the past two months, the number of 3G subscribers has increased rapidly, and it has reached 1.73 million globally. As of January 1, 2004, the number of 3G users worldwide using cdma2000 (including CDMA 1X) series and WCDMA standard has reached 73 million.
From a global perspective, 3G commercial use has achieved initial success in some regions.
Fourth, China's 3G is on the eve of dawn. China has always adopted a positive and stable attitude towards 3G. At present, China is conducting the second stage of network technology trials, or field tests. Since March this year, the test work of WCDMA, cdma2000 and TD-SCDMA has been started, which are carried out by six major operators in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The key points of the test include: 3G network coverage, capacity and other performance tests; interference and coexistence between different 3G technologies, 3G and 2G technologies; various 3G services and service compatibility tests; interoperability tests between 3G terminals and systems ; Interoperability test between 3G and 2G.
It is expected that this phase of the test will be completed in October this year, and the test will play an important reference role for China's decision-making work on 3G. Because the test is participated by the operator and belongs to the network test. Therefore, it is expected that if the results of this test are satisfactory, the issuance of 3G licenses in China may start.
Trend analysis 3G has many twists and turns. There was a time when people lost confidence in the future of 3G and left a psychological shadow today. How should China grasp the 3G problem? The author believes that at present, 3G is in the explosive stage of commercial use. Due to the maturity of 3G technology and products, the commercial use of 3G has undoubtedly been in front of us. Operators in Europe, the United States and other countries are stepping up the deployment of 3G networks and the rapid growth of 3G users in Japan, South Korea and other countries. This indicates that 3G has become a new growth point in the global mobile communications field. In this way, we will not miss the opportunity and fall behind in the construction of the leading mobile network. At the same time, 3G also provides excellent opportunities for domestic telecommunications manufacturers, which is also a good opportunity for the development of China's mobile communications industry.
It should be said that there are still some problems with 3G, mainly in the market is still in the enlightenment stage, the killer business has not yet appeared, and there are not enough terminals. In China, the government will consider grasping the degree of market competition, involving the issue of several licenses for 3G networks, and at the same time, will also consider the issue of localization of equipment. These problems are already secondary contradictions. The most important thing at present is to choose the right time to promote the construction of the 3G network platform as soon as possible. This is the key and guiding link to resolve the above contradictions.
This is mainly because China's 3G network construction is different from western developed countries. China's mobile voice user market still has a lot of room for growth, which can avoid the situation that the new application and new services are insufficient to support the network's survival because of the initial development. At the same time, China has "new" operators who urgently need to enter the mobile market. If China Telecom and China Netcom are allowed to operate mobile communication services, their network construction will inevitably choose 3G, which is far lower than the network cost in the mid-to-long term 2G technology. In addition, the issuance of 3G licenses as soon as possible is also of strategic importance for resolving existing PHS contradictions. At present, Japan has abandoned PHS and switched to 3G. Its purpose is very obvious, that is, to correct its mistakes in the early stage with a strong localization characteristic of PHS, which caused it to lose its international leading position in the mobile field, and to re-arm with global advanced technology. Its own mobile communications industry has achieved a strategic rise in this field. If our country does the opposite, it will be unwise. The key is the government ’s decision-making guidance, and it cannot complain about operators. In short, 3G is not achieved overnight. If the network is not built for a long time, other contradictions will continue to accumulate and it is difficult to get a fundamental solution.
2. Promotion of 3.5GHz broadband fixed wireless access 3.5GHz broadband fixed wireless access technology MMDS is a medium-bandwidth wireless access technology that works on the 3.5GHz wireless frequency band. In April this year, the third batch of 3.5GHz broadband fixed wireless access frequency selection (bidding) was conducted in China, which further expanded the application of MMDS technology in China, which also made 3.5GHz fixed wireless access technology a hot spot in the industry this year. One.
In this selection (bidding) work, the five major operators of China Telecom, China Netcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Railcom obtained the frequency of 2 × 30MHz in the 3.5GHz band in 27 provinces (autonomous regions) including Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, etc. Rights, and will be allowed to operate the corresponding telecommunications business. Coupled with the two previous allocations of 3.5GHz frequency usage rights, China's 3.5GHz frequency band has been allocated in most regions. This shows that China's 3.5GHz broadband fixed wireless access has entered large-scale commercial use.
Some time ago, Liu Yan, deputy director of the Radio Administration Bureau, led a research team composed of the Radio Administration Bureau, the Telecommunications Administration Bureau, and the Telecommunications Research Institute to investigate the work of the second batch of 3.5GHz winning bidders. Through the investigation, it was found that 7 out of the 9 enterprises that won the bid in the second batch have opened the network, and these 7 enterprises have built their own networks in more than half of the cities that won the bid. At present, operators tend to provide services including: voice access services (local and IP phones), data private line services, Internet access services, etc. The survey also found that if the 3.5GHz network is operated as a single network, the profitability is more difficult, especially for large enterprises. During the survey, the operating companies showed great enthusiasm for further obtaining 3.5GHz frequency resources.
Trend analysis Broadband fixed wireless access technology has attracted industry attention because of its high bandwidth, fast construction speed, and flexible access methods. However, this technology also has its limitations. For example, the high-band 26GHz LMDS technology is greatly affected by the weather, while the 3.5GHz MMDS technology is limited by factors such as insufficient bandwidth in China. Therefore, we should return to a rational understanding of broadband fixed wireless access technology. It has its own advantages, but also has its inherent shortcomings, so be practical and realistic in application.
From the perspective of the 3.5GHz technology currently being promoted, operators' operating experience shows that if the MMDS technology is operated as an independent network alone, it is difficult to achieve profitability due to the limitations of its technology, user size and frequency bandwidth. Therefore, we should further broaden our vision and promote it to a larger application field. For example, you can consider using it as a loop for mobile base stations as some operators now use.
For 3.5GHz MMDS technology, on the one hand, we must actively promote the application of its integrated services, such as the development and operation of data value-added services. At the same time, it should be considered from a global perspective to make it an effective complementary means for mobile communication networks. Only in this way can the efficiency of the 3.5GHz band be fully utilized. In the future, with the commercialization of 3G technology, 3.5GHz is expected to become an important supplementary means of access for mobile networks, and will support the construction of 3G networks.
3. The fierce battle for the WLAN standard The wireless local area network technology WLAN (Wi-Fi), the technical standard of which is 802.11, can realize wireless access from dozens to tens of trillions. The current development in China is mainly the 802.11b standard WLAN network, which supports 11Mbps wireless access. As a new technology in recent years, WLAN has developed rapidly in countries such as Europe and the United States, and has been sought after by several major operators in China in the past two years. The WAPI standard battle that began last year has attracted worldwide attention.
On May 12, 2003, the two national standards for wireless local area networks (ie WAPI standards) drafted by the China Broadband Wireless IP Standards Working Group were submitted to the National Standardization Management Committee for formal promulgation by the Ministry of Information Industry. On December 1, 2003, the National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued Announcement No. 113 of 2003, announcing the implementation of mandatory product certification for wireless LAN products, requiring all products to be loaded with China ’s independent security agreement WAPI, from From June 1, 2004, wireless LAN products that do not meet the WAPI standard may not be shipped, imported, sold, or used in other business activities. However, on April 22, 2004, Vice Premier Wu Yi of the State Council stated that China had agreed to the request made by the US and would not enforce the WAPI standard when the deadline of June 1, 2004 came. On April 29, 2004, the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, and the National Standards Committee jointly issued Announcement No. 44 of 2004. The announcement emphasizes that the implementation time of the WAPI standard is only postponed, and it has not been cancelled, nor is the mandatory attribute of the standard canceled.
The author believes that the reason for the WAPI standard dispute is that in addition to the country's own information security considerations, China's wireless communication equipment manufacturers hope to grow and grow, and the desire to occupy the emerging technology market is also an important factor. However, the indefinite delay of the standard also exposed some problems. That is to say, the core capabilities of China's wireless technology still have a certain gap compared with the international level, and it is still difficult to shake the mainstream international technology groups. At the same time, there are still closed issues in the formulation of China's communication technology standards, which is also an important reason for its widespread attack by the international community. Of course, the postponement of the implementation of the WAPI standard is also for the sake of greater national interest.
The trend analysis of the WAPI standard battles shows the important strategic position of WLAN technology in the world. Its strategic significance lies not only in the deployment of the network, the development of users, and the scope of business operations, but also in its huge pulling power in the field of IT communication products, especially its outstanding contribution to computer chips. Therefore, China should actively promote the research work of WLAN core technology, which not only involves the communication industry, but also involves huge benefits in the field of IT.
Aside from the WAPI standard dispute, how can we grasp the development trend of WLAN technology? It should be said that the current work of WLAN in China has fallen into a low tide. This is mainly due to the limitations of the WLAN technology itself, such as its roaming, security, how to charge, etc., has not been properly resolved. In addition, the lack of high-end business users makes the investment income of the network construction relatively low, which also affects the enthusiasm of operators. In the future, as the technology matures further, WLAN technology will play an important complementary role in mobile communication networks in specific areas and areas, especially in hotspot areas and high-speed information access areas. After the commercialization of the 3G network, WLAN will become a remedy for the lack of high-speed coverage in 3G fixed areas. Overall, WLAN has a strong vitality, but its development speed in the field of operations is estimated to be lower than expected in the past.
4. The new favorite of broadband wireless technology WiMAX
According to information, "WiMAX" has become the most searched communication keyword on the Internet recently, and the technology has become the new favorite of the wireless industry due to its far coverage and high bandwidth characteristics.
WiMAX is called World Interoperability for Microwave Access, which is the global microwave access interoperability system. Its technical standard is IEEE 802.16. WiMAX has also organized its own alliance. At present, the alliance has developed dozens of members. The alliance is led by Intel, and China ’s ZTE Corporation is also among them. The goal of WiMAX is to promote the application of IEEE 802.16.
The advantage of WiMAX over Wi-Fi is that Wi-Fi solves the problem of wireless LAN access, while WiMAX solves the problem of wireless MAN. Wi-Fi can only transmit signals connected to the Internet 300 feet away, while WiMAX can transmit signals 31 miles away. Wi-Fi network connection speed is 54 trillion per second, while WiMAX is 70 trillion per second. Some experts believe that WiMAX's coverage and transmission speed will pose a threat to 3G. The advantages in various aspects such as cost make the insiders regard WiMAX technology as a technology that breaks the industrial pattern.
Recently, British Telecom (BT), France Telecom, Qwest Communications, Reliance Telecom and XO Communications joined the WiMAX Forum. The WiMAX Forum currently has 98 members, with operators accounting for 25%. Earlier this year, Intel also announced that it will adopt the WiMAX standard in its chips from the second half of the year.
Trend analysis What should we think of today's unusually hot WiMAX technology? Will it be the terminator of 3G technology? The author believes that this view is not entirely correct. First of all, from the perspective of technology itself, WiMAX does not yet have the mobile features of wide-area roaming, security features, and terminal portability of public mobile communication networks. Secondly, the WiMAX standard is not yet mature, so it is expected that commercial use will take at least two years or more, and it will take about five years for the scale to be popularized. Third, WiMAX is characterized by its high-speed data transmission capability, but it has not yet provided efficient support for real-time voice services, which will limit its application as a public mobile communication. Fourth, the industrial scale of WiMAX and the maturity of technology and equipment are still far from competing with 3G, and its promotion period will lag behind the 3G technology that has already started. Fifth, WiMAX technology may be resisted by traditional mobile communication operators or manufacturers, thus limiting its development.
For WiMAX technology, the author believes that it has great potential, but it is still in its infancy, and it is currently difficult to have a significant impact on the current global wireless communication landscape. Due to the implementation of 3G, WiMAX may become a supplementary method for 3G networks in the future, and exert its characteristics in the field of high-speed information access. However, due to its own mobility and voice support capabilities, WiMAX is unlikely to kill 3G.
5. UWB wireless access technology UWB
In addition to the continuous emergence of new technologies, the activeness of wireless technology is also reflected in the continuous expansion of its transmission capabilities. In the past two years, an ultra-high-speed wireless access technology has attracted everyone's attention, and that is UWB.
UWB is a time-domain communication technology that uses ultra-short periodic pulses to modulate and send signals directly as 0 or 1 without using a carrier wave, which is very different from previous wireless communications. The signal generated by pulse modulation is an ultra-wideband signal with extremely low spectral density. The center frequency of the signal is between 650MHz and 5GHz, and the average power is in the order of sub-milliwatt. . Compared with the CDMA system, the time-domain communication system has a simple structure and a relatively low cost. UWB technology has the remarkable characteristics of high speed, low cost and low power consumption.
The most striking feature of UWB is its high data transmission rate. Xtreme Spectrum predicts that the product they are about to develop will have the ability to transmit about 100Mbps within 10 meters, while Intel has set the target at 500Mbps.
Trend analysis For UWB technology, we should look at it this way. It will occupy a place in the field of wireless communication with its unique speed and special application range. Because of its high-speed, narrow coverage characteristics, it is very suitable for the establishment of high-speed information network for the family. It has a certain impact on Bluetooth technology, but it is not a big threat to current mobile technology, WLAN and other technologies, and can even become a good complement to its ability.
Third, grasp the trend: the integrated layout of access to multiple networks represents the above direction, and the current hotspots and focus issues in the field of wireless communication are described and discussed. So, how can we grasp the development trend of the wireless field in the medium term?
First of all, the complementarity of various technologies in the field of wireless communication is increasingly clear. This is mainly reflected in different access technologies with different coverage, different areas of application, different technical characteristics, and different access rates. Such as 3G and WLAN, UWB, etc., can achieve complementary effects. 3G can solve the mobility requirements of wide-area seamless coverage and strong roaming, WLAN can solve the higher-speed data access in the middle distance, and UWB can realize the ultra-high-speed wireless access in the short distance. Therefore, in terms of policy, we should comprehensively promote the development of various wireless access, promote the integration process of networking, and diversify the access methods of network construction to achieve the coverage of different user groups and achieve market segmentation and business. The diversification of mobile communications solves the uneven development of mobile communications.
Secondly, the Chinese government should allocate more wireless frequency resources to enterprises to promote the planning and application of spectrum related to different technologies. Only in this way can different enterprises comprehensively plan their own wireless communication networks according to different development strategies and market demands, and realize the effective allocation and utilization of resources. Of course, the government also needs to strengthen the management of the limited frequency resources, and consider the appropriate means to recover the frequency occupancy when the enterprises are idle.
Third, from the perspective of the development of public mobile communication networks, 3G has become the main process of global network evolution including China Mobile. Judging from the experience of developed countries in Europe and America, due to the high penetration rate of mobile voice users, the mode of growth through user development has become history. Therefore, they expect to build a larger business platform through 3G to realize a new source of profit. Due to the maturity of 3G technology, the deployment of 3G commercial networks has been launched globally. As far as our country is concerned, we must learn from the experience of Europe and the United States. Before the growth of the number of users slows down, we should cultivate the emerging mobile market in advance. At present, the government should begin to actively consider the issue of 3G license issuance and commercialization, and seize this huge historical opportunity in the mobile industry.
Fourth, from the perspective of broadband wireless access technology, global development in this field is very hot. The development in this field shows a trend of rapid leap to high bandwidth and gradual expansion of coverage. In the future, more powerful new technologies may appear in this field, which will promote the entire wireless communication industry from another perspective. But in the near future, we should have a rational attitude and a scientific grasp of the development of broadband wireless access technology. The current broadband wireless access technology mainly focuses on high-speed access in a fixed environment, and its mobility and voice support capabilities cannot compete with the public mobile communication network. In the course of development, we should grasp it from a holistic point of view and make it an important technical means complementary to the mobile network, so that it can not only give full play to its technical personality, but also prevent unnecessary resource competition and waste.
Fifth, what should the future wireless communication network look like? Experts believe that the future wireless communication network will be a comprehensive and integrated solution. Various wireless technologies will play their role in this integrated network and find their own world. From the perspective of large-scale public mobile communications, 3G or ultra-3G technologies will dominate, thereby forming a wide and seamless coverage of the world; and broadband access technologies such as WLAN, WiMAX, UWB, etc. In different coverage areas or application areas, it forms an effective complement with the public mobile communication network.
Sixth, in the far future, according to the expectations of current experts, the communication information network will be integrated into the next generation network NGN. In the future NGN concept, the fixed network will form an information communication network platform with high bandwidth, IP, and strong QoS guarantee. On this platform, various access methods will become the tentacles of the network and extend to various application fields. And 3G, broadband fixed wireless access, various wireless local area network or metropolitan area network solutions, will become an extension of the large NGN platform. As a result, a fixed wireless method is integrated, various access methods are put into effect, and various services form an integrated network with a full network configuration. Of course, this process will be lengthy and will certainly encounter many setbacks.
4. Conclusion Due to the contradiction between the bandwidth requirements of wireless communication networks and the insufficient bandwidth of mobile networks, the contradiction between the geographical distribution of users and the imbalance of application requirements, and the contradiction between the coexistence of different technical advantages and deficiencies, therefore, it is necessary to develop a comprehensive Use a variety of technical means, from the overall and long-term perspective, adopt an integrated approach to planning and construction of the network. Give play to the individuality of different technologies, comprehensive layout, solve the different needs of different regions and different user groups for bandwidth and business, and achieve the overall advantages and comprehensive capabilities of wireless communication networks. In this regard, China's government management department should also actively allocate sufficient spectrum resources to operators to provide strong support and guarantee for their comprehensive planning.
In short, the future development trend of wireless communication in the medium term is as follows: various wireless technologies complement each other, each has its own strengths, and develops into a broadband wireless network with multiple access, integrated network, and integrated applications, and gradually realizes broadband fixed networks. Organic integration.
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