National Electricity Supply and Demand in 2011 and Analysis and Forecast in 2012

In 2011, under the correct leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the national economy continued to develop toward the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control, and achieved a good start in economic and social development during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. The power industry has maintained a steady and rapid development momentum, and its supply capacity has steadily increased. Under the condition of rapid growth in electricity demand, the power industry has overcome the difficulties of the incoming water, the shortage of power coal, the large-scale loss of thermal power companies, and the unsmooth institutional mechanisms, and effectively responded to these problems. The nation's power supply and demand situation is generally tight, and in some regions and during certain periods of time, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. The country’s power operation is generally stable. In 2012, the expected effects of the national macro-control will become more apparent, the economy will continue to develop steadily and rapidly, and the growth of electricity demand will slow down. However, due to factors such as slow growth of installed capacity, especially thermal power generation, insufficient supply of thermal coal, and uncertainties in hydropower water supply, etc. Impact, it is expected that the electricity supply and demand in the country is still tight, and regional, seasonal, seasonal power shortage is more prominent.

I. Analysis of electricity supply and demand situation in 2011 in 2011, mainly due to factors such as the decline of hydropower output, tight supply of power coal, unbalanced power grid structure, and rapid growth of economic and power demand. The overall power supply and demand in the country is tight, and some regions and parts The power shortage during the period was relatively serious. There were 24 power grids in the country that were in short supply, and the maximum power shortage exceeded 30 million kilowatts. By adopting cross-district and inter-provincial power support, strengthening demand-side management, and implementing orderly power utilization and other measures, the contradiction between power supply and demand has been effectively alleviated, and the stable and healthy economic and social development has been guaranteed. The main features are:

(I) The demand for electricity consumption is very strong, and the difference in regional electricity growth is very large. According to statistics from our society, in 2011, the country’s total electricity consumption was 4.69 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.7% over the previous year, and consumer demand was still strong. The per capita electricity consumption was 3483 kWh, an increase of 351 kWh over the previous year, exceeding the world average.

In 2011, the electricity use of the primary industry increased by 3.9% over the previous year. The secondary industry and its industrial electricity consumption increased by 11.9% and 11.8% respectively, accounting for 75.0% and 73.8% of the total electricity consumption of the entire society, which is still the determinant factor for the growth of electricity consumption. Among them, the growth rate of electricity for light industry use It is lower than heavy industry and the gap is widening. The third industry used electricity to grow by 13.5%, including delivery (transportation, warehousing and postal services), information (information transmission, computer services and software), commerce (commercial, accommodation and catering), finance (finance, real estate) The business sector grew by 15.4%, 17.6%, 16.4% and 14.3%, respectively, with good growth momentum. The growth of electricity consumption by urban and rural residents slowed down to 10.8%, of which urban residents’ electricity consumption only increased by 8.2%.

The power consumption in the East, Central, West, and Northeastern regions increased by 9.6%, 12.1%, 17.2%, and 7.9%, respectively. Demand for electricity in the Midwest was significantly faster than that in the eastern and northeast regions. The growth rate of electricity consumption in all provinces in the western region was higher than that in the entire country. At the average level, the large electricity-producing provinces in the east have reduced the use of electricity in the country.

(II) The power supply capacity is further enhanced, and new features emerge in the installed machinery structure. In 2011, the country’s infrastructure construction capacity increased by 90.41 million kilowatts, and it increased by more than 90 million kilowatts for six consecutive years. At the end of the year, the national capacity of full-caliber power generation equipment was 1.056 billion kilowatts, an increase of 9.2% over the previous year; the length of transmission lines and the capacity of public transformers for power transmission lines of 220 kilovolts and above were 480,000 km and 2.20 billion kVA, respectively, which was an increase over the previous year respectively. 7.9% and 10.5% of the country’s power supply and allocation capabilities have been further enhanced.

The new features of the installed structure, the proportion of clean energy, and the slow growth of thermal power installations. At the end of 2011, the share of clean energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar energy reached 27.5%, up by 0.9 percentage point from the previous year. The country’s total installed power generation capacity and thermal power equipment capacity increased by 9.2% and 7.9% respectively, which was lower than the 2.5 and 6.2% increase in power generation of the same caliber respectively, adding to the pressure of conventional energy units such as thermal power to ensure power balance. The installed capacity in the western, northeastern, central, and eastern regions increased by 14.5%, 7.8%, 7.3%, and 6.4%, respectively. The growth in installed capacity in the eastern and central regions was lower than the 3.2% and 4.8 percentage points increase in power consumption, respectively, and the regional structure of installed capacity changed. The power supply and demand in the eastern region are even more strained when the cross-region resource allocation capacity cannot be completely matched.

(3) Trans-regional and inter-provincial electricity transmissions have grown steadily, and transmission capacity is still insufficient. In 2011, the nationwide trans-regional transmission of electricity was 168 billion kWh, up 12.8% from the previous year; inter-provincial electricity transmission was 633.3 billion kWh, up 9.7 %. Among them, the northwest sent 42.6 billion kwh of electricity, an increase of 167%; northeast China sent 10 billion kwh, an increase of 13.9%. Due to the limitation of trans-regional and inter-provincial power transmission capacity, about 30 million kilowatts of power are still not available in the Northeast, Mengxi, and Northwestern regions, which can't be transported to power-constrained areas in East China and Huazhong, resulting in the coexistence of “power shortage” and “electricity power.”

(4) The hydropower generation volume decreased significantly year-on-year, which has a greater impact on trans-regional and inter-provincial power transmission and power balance. In 2011, the national full-caliber power generation amounted to 4.72 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.7% over the previous year; of which, hydropower decreased by 3.5%. Thermal power increased by 14.1%, nuclear power was 87.4 billion kWh, an increase of 16.9%, and grid-connected wind power was 73.2 billion kWh, an increase of 48.2%. The nation’s power generation equipment utilization hours were 4,731 hours, which has risen for two consecutive years. Among them, the utilization hours of hydropower equipment was 3028 hours, 376 hours lower than the previous year, the lowest in nearly 30 years; the utilization hours of thermal power equipment was 5294 hours, compared with the previous year. The increase was 264 hours, the largest increase since 2004.

The reduction of hydropower generation has a greater impact on trans-regional and inter-provincial power transmission and power balance. In 2011, the cumulative power delivered by the Three Gorges Power Plant decreased by 7.3% compared with the previous year; the power sent by Central China fell by 15.1%, which was sent to East China, Northwest China, North China, and South China respectively decreased by 11.0%, 16.3%, 69.6%, and 12.1%. Due to the dry weather and the coal problem, Guizhou's output power dropped by 11.5%, resulting in a decrease of 13.2% in the power of the “West-to-East Power Transmission” of China Southern Power Grid.

(5) The contradiction between electric coal is still prominent, the reduction of hydropower generation due to high coal price, and the rapid growth of thermal power have greatly affected the supply and demand relationship of electric coal. In 2011, the cumulative supply and consumption of coal by major national power generation enterprises increased by 15.78% and 15.3%, respectively, and the daily average supply and coal consumption were 3.81 million tons and 3.74 million tons respectively; the coal consumption of the power plants continued to be high in each month. Although the national coal storage capacity of power plants is generally at a relatively high level, the geographical distribution of electric coal stocks is not uniform, coupled with the increase in the use of thermal power, the continuous high price of coal in the market, and other factors, resulting in the tight coal market, some provinces in the local time The tight supply of coal has affected the electricity supply.

(VI) The proportion of power grids and clean energy investment continued to increase, and the proportion of thermal power investment dropped significantly. In 2011, the country’s investment in power engineering construction reached 739.3 billion yuan, which was basically the same as the previous year. Among them, the investment in power supply and power grid construction completed 371.2 billion yuan and 368.2 billion yuan, respectively, a decrease of 6.5% and a growth of 6.8% over the previous year, and the proportion of power grid investment in power investment increased by 3.3 percentage points over the previous year. In the power investment, the investment in thermal power was only 46.4% of that in 2005, and it has decreased for the sixth consecutive year in a row. In 2011, the proportion of thermal power investment in power investment dropped to 28.4%, and the proportion of clean energy investment increased significantly.

II. Forecast of the National Electricity Supply and Demand Situation in 2012 In 2012, the general tone of the country's “stability for progress” and more effective macroeconomic regulation will ensure that the economy will maintain stable and rapid growth, and the economic and electric power growth rate will fall back. The growth rate of social power consumption is between 8.5% and 10.5%, the recommended scheme is 9.5%, and the annual electricity consumption is 5.14 trillion kilowatt-hours, which may present a “low front and high back” distribution. In terms of supply, it is estimated that about 85 million kilowatts of new installed capacity will be installed, including about 20 million kilowatts of hydropower and about 50 million kilowatts of thermal power. By the end of the year, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation will have reached approximately 1.14 billion kilowatts.

Judging from the current situation, in 2012, there was a high possibility of partial water and electricity shortages in Qianqian, and the regional and time-consuming contradictions of electric coal were still prominent. The external supply environment was still severe. Based on the comprehensive balance analysis, it is expected that the nation's electricity supply and demand will remain generally tight in 2012, and regional, seasonal and seasonal power shortages will remain prominent. The maximum power gap will be 30-40 million kilowatts. The annual utilization hours of power generation equipment will be around 4,750 hours, and the utilization hours of thermal power equipment will be between 5,300 and 5,400 hours.

III. Suggestions (1) Increase coal production, control coal prices, and protect coal transportation The national electricity consumption in 2012 is expected to increase by about 150 million tons from the previous year, corresponding to the need for more than 300 million tons of domestic coal supply. In order to better protect the needs of coal. In 2012, the hydropower production situation may still be not optimistic. The key to ensuring electricity supply is to ensure the supply of coal for coal-fired power generation. Therefore, the first is to release coal production capacity as soon as possible, increase domestic coal production, control domestic coal exports, and increase the scale of coal imports. Ensuring adequate supply of electric coal; secondly, do a good job of supervision and inspection of coal prices, implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and relevant requirements of the State, rectify the circulation, strictly control the price of coal to the plant (plant), and thirdly, start the coal-fired power in time. Linkage, as soon as possible to straighten out the formation mechanism of electricity prices, improve the production and operation environment of thermal power plants; Fourth, establish and improve the coal power supply and sales early warning, adjustment, emergency mechanisms to support coal-fired power companies to keep more coal, to maintain a reasonable level of coal storage power plant; five is an overall arrangement is good Railway transport capacity, the organization of coal transportation in key regions, and the acceleration of the approval of the construction of a coal transportation channel for the “Northern Coal South” railway.

(B) The use of electricity prices and other economic adjustment means to deepen the demand side management and orderly use of electricity measures to promote economic restructuring A comprehensive summary of China's experience in solving the contradictions of power shortages and lessons learned, and accelerate the promotion of electricity prices and other market-oriented means to adjust the balance of power supply and demand. The first is to deepen the power demand side management, introduce and implement measures such as differential power tariffs, punitive power tariffs, and peak-to-valley power prices to form a force-reversing mechanism for industrial structure adjustment and energy saving, prompting users to save energy through extensive application of energy-saving technologies or industrial technology upgrades. Saving electricity, promoting the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of development methods; Second, do a good job in orderly power utilization, refine the corresponding measures, give full play to the leading role of the government, and adjust the orderly power usage scheme according to the characteristics of the local electricity load to ensure The third is to timely release information on electricity supply and demand, guide the society to correctly face the contradiction of power shortages, jointly deal with and implement orderly use of electricity, and create a good environment for power supply and power supply; Fourth, it is appropriate to limit high consumption. Can export products.

(III) Highly concerned about the impact of the large-scale development of new energy sources on the balance of electricity supply and demand In recent years, China’s wind power, solar energy and other new energy sources have rapidly developed. In particular, wind power installed capacity has doubled year after year, reaching 45.05 million kilowatts by the end of 2011. New installed capacity accounts for nearly 20% of all new installed capacity. The large-scale development of new energy power generation, while contributing to power structure adjustment, energy conservation and emission reduction, also has a significant impact on the balance between power supply and demand. New energy sources such as wind power and solar energy have low energy density and few hours of power generation and utilization. They are difficult to match with stable electricity demand. At the same time, wind power has strong randomness, intermittentity, and uncontrollability. Solar power generation also has similar characteristics. To ensure system security and stable supply of electricity, wind power, solar energy and other new energy generation are generally not included in the monthly and annual power balance and cannot replace conventional power sources. Therefore, in the power planning, power supply project arrangement and other work, we must pay close attention to the impact of new energy generation on the scale of power generation and the balance between power supply and demand. While actively developing new energy generation, we must seriously study and formulate and actively implement the requirements for meeting the reliable supply of electricity. Power grid planning and construction arrangements.

(D) Adhere to coal transmission and transmission simultaneously, promote the appropriate development of electricity ahead of a long period of time, China's coal and electricity transportation tensions appear repeatedly, giving economic development and people's lives a certain impact. Electricity is a clean, convenient, and efficient secondary energy source. It is also an important basic industry for the national economy. Maintaining a stable supply of electricity is an important safeguard for improving energy efficiency, promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and reasonably controlling total energy consumption. We must insist on coal transmission and transmission simultaneously, increase the proportion of transmission, and promote appropriate advance development of electricity. The first is to accelerate the large-scale and intensified development of large-scale coal and electric power bases in the western and northern regions, and use advanced transmission technologies such as UHV and large-capacity DC to transfer electric power to the load center in Central and Eastern China to ease the inconsistency in the lack of coal and railway transportation capacity and achieve greater The optimization of energy resources within the scope of the recent development is mainly aimed at accelerating the approval of power projects and outbound power transmission projects for a number of coal-fired power bases such as Ximeng, Mengxi, and Xinjiang; and secondly, accelerating the development of hydropower basins in accordance with the principle of giving priority to developing hydropower and safely and efficiently developing nuclear power. And the EIA approval for the power station will be approved as soon as conditions permit, and a number of follow-up hydropower projects will be approved as soon as possible. At the same time, the preparation and approval of nuclear power safety plans will be accelerated. Under the premise of ensuring safety, the approval of new nuclear power projects will be resumed and appropriately accelerated.