We always have unlimited enthusiasm and delusion for the sky, and we are eager to reach the unknown in the sky. Many years ago, many people just cast paper planes to children in high places. Paper planes carried the exploration of flying and the sky. Today, the carrier that connects the sky and the ground is a drone that replaces human flying. Manipulating flying has become another experience for people to fight in the sky.
With the rapid development of technology, drones are no longer a kind of flight entertainment, but also strive to be integrated into various fields as a new product. According to the data of an organization, in 2015, the global drones sold about 587,000, of which military drones accounted for about 3%, and civilian drones accounted for 97%. In the sales of civil drones, professional-grade drones sold about 171,000, and consumer-grade drones sold about 399,000.
In the five years from 2011 to 2015, the sales of Chinese companies DJI Innovation increased by nearly 100 times in the world, and the current comprehensive strength ranks first in the world. According to the forecast of Changjiang Securities, the total output value of Chinese civil aircraft in 2015 is about 1.35 billion yuan. By 2020, the market for mass consumer market will be 26 billion yuan; the market for professional fever will be 4 billion yuan; and the market for industrial application will be 81.5 billion yuan. Overall, by 2020, the industry's output value will exceed 100 billion.
The dazzling and exciting data about drones, as well as the imaginative prospects, have been repeatedly mentioned many times in the midst of enthusiasm. However, aside from these bright data, from the application point of view, the drone will really be as popular as the imagination, and the prospects are unlimited.
The drone will make the sky and the road no longer safe and reliable.As early as 2013, Amazon has tried to use small-capacity drones to transport small parcels. The delivery of drones in the village of Jingdong has also caused hot discussion before, and is keen to develop "drone-delivery" companies or institutions, such as Google, DHL, SF, China Post, etc. However, the drones that the giants are propagating will become a weapon in the future logistics industry.
Because, even if the technology of the drone reaches a mature and almost perfect level, the attempt to copy the village drone delivery mode to a city with more centralized logistics, and large-scale application, the problem is not a security challenge. simple. And these challenges are not limited to drone delivery.
In fact, the aerial flight products of drones can be imagined once the consequences of the "explosive" incident occur in crowded areas. In reality, there have been many incidents of drone wounding. Even the UAV giant we are proud of, there are more than 30 accidents in June this year. In the next few years, with the technical threshold, the number will decrease. Growing, like car accidents, drones are very likely to become a potential threat to public safety.
Perhaps after a few years or even longer, the technology of the drone, including endurance, obstacle avoidance, and adaptation to bad weather, can reach near perfection and greatly enhance the safety of the drone, but the technology is absolutely perfect. Will not completely eliminate hidden dangers. Because no one product can achieve 100% pass rate, and no technology can detect the presence of counterfeit products 100%. The drone's cockroaches are likely to appear during the flight. In the future, with more emphasis on personal safety and freedom, once a crash or drone crime occurs, it is likely to stimulate the injured to protest against the use of drones. Although it may not be used, the sky will become more and more insecure.
Just like the road once, it was relatively safe before it was without a car, but now, when we are on the road, we must always pay attention to the vehicles that are running around. The current sky, although blocked by smog, is at least relatively safe. And the future sky may make us feel more uneasy than walking on the road, because the human eye can't be identified at all, and the danger hidden in the fog is when the unmanned opportunity appears on the top of the head.
Therefore, no one can stop the development trend of drones, but drones can not block the insecurities caused by people on the ground.
Man-made manipulation and crime are unsettled factors that technology cannot overcomeAnother aspect of security is human cause. The drone flight is at least inseparable from human operations for a long time. Especially for novices, a slight mishandling can lead to crashes or collisions, and it is difficult to prevent them from being manipulated by other controllers. Perhaps there will be a slight limit on operator qualifications in the future, but what kind of qualities should the specialized operators required for drones have? Do you need a certain license? How to prevent unlit work? These have not been systematically determined so far.
Technology is not guilty, but the users of technology are difficult to control. The criminal facts of using drones to transport drugs or even terrorist attacks have not happened. Today, this is becoming a new challenge. A few years ago, South Korea was worried that North Korea would use a drone to carry a suicide attack. The US military in Iraq and Syria is now facing this new threat. To make matters worse, the US military has not found an effective response for the time being.
Once the drone reaches the level of popularity, it is very convenient to use this tool crime, because the drone itself in the air exacerbates the difficulty of preventing crime, coupled with the lack of remote control and real-time monitoring, it will be very difficult to determine Criminal suspects and search for evidence of crime. Some social extremists use drones to carry detonators, and even a small amount of explosives is enough to cause massive wounding. And this kind of violent attack, ordinary people and even institutions will be difficult to distinguish and prevent. After all, it is dangerous to let ordinary people identify the numerous drones in the air from the ground, and there is no effective way.
The problems associated with these difficulties can also be very tangled: when you think that drones threaten their own safety, is it illegal to shoot down drones flying above them? It is illegal to legally destroy the private property of others, but in terms of personal freedom and security, is this a kind of self-defense protection?
The argument that human nature is good and human nature is a war that is endless and has no ending, and the emergence of morality is no longer the original form of human beings. No one knows whether sabotage and self-interest are born or acquired, but it is undeniable that it is the nature of all living things.
Just because technology can't eliminate hidden dangers, control and supervision will become necessary tools, but the more serious problem is that drones involve airspace and have a wide range of military uses. How to supervise in the air will cause drones to face fog. Heavy unknown future.
For example, the drone delivery service mentioned at the beginning, its essence is the extensive use of low-altitude airspace, individual experimental operation is not serious, but once the e-commerce is ready to use the drone to transport express, the low-altitude field will Forming a relatively intensive traffic flow, if there is no management at that time, it can be imagined that no one has swept the city like a locust, and the collision and crash have become the norm. The camouflage criminal drone can also be mixed in, and the driver moves.
After the proliferation of drones, the management problems will make the relevant departments scrupulous about safety issues, and may even lead the government not to allow drones to fly unorderly above the city on a large scale. On the one hand, quantity, quality, frequency, etc. may be established. Provisions. Once limited, hot areas such as the very popular drones that are currently being promoted will be hit hard. On the other hand, it may be more open-minded to establish airborne orbits for drone flight. However, this kind of feasibility involves more complicated technical considerations and planning and design. Whether it can be realized is still unknown.
In fact, no matter whether domestic or foreign, there is no corresponding low-altitude transportation control policy system for such aircraft, the management of drones is still in its infancy, and there is a certain promotion risk at the policy level. . In recent days, the Swedish court has ruled that the drone with camera will be listed on the banned list, unless it is to investigate criminal cases or accidents, otherwise it is necessary to apply for a permit for activities such as weddings, news, etc. that require the use of drones.
Although this regulation can effectively protect personal privacy from being leaked, it has seriously hit Sweden's booming drone market. According to statistics, in 2015 alone, more than 20,000 drones were sold in Sweden, of which more than 1,000 were used for commercial purposes. In 2014, they also ruled that camera drones were legally available. This just shows that the supervision and control of the drone has made the Swedish government feel difficult, so it will be wavering and changing.
In the future, "unmanned hunters" and the "new ecology" of the black market will be born."Private" is the source of all evils, and it is also the foundation of human inferiority. Based on this, in the face of a drone that is far away from the owner, unmonitored and accessible, people with strong destructive desires, even bear children with strong curiosity, always feel that drones threaten their own security and violate their privacy. People may choose to shoot down drones. Such things may be simply stopped by relying on technology and supervision. In particular, those who use the drone to gain profits, in the mindset of human beings and the death of birds, will definitely make every effort in this profitable thing, and the organs will be counted. A new gray career will be formed: "Drone Hunter."
Drone hunters can be easily divided into two types. A special tool to catch a drone, a low-level one, using a net to send the courier to the courier when it is near the window, advanced can control more advanced drones, Controlling it to catch small drones, both cargo and cargo. These capture technologies will mature faster due to the stimulation of interest, and often users have not thought about the measures, and the hunters have prepared the tools to “grind the knife to the pigsâ€.
Another kind of hunter is a high-tech criminal like a hacker. They can invade the drone control system. They can get nothing by changing the positioning. When the "Panda Burning Incense" event of the drone board is repeated, the consequences will be solved by the computer. Being controlled by hackers is even more terrible What's more, once the control system is mastered by the extremists in the drone hunter, countless drones will become a weapon for killing.
At present, due to the limited scope and quantity of drones, it is not enough to produce a drone hunter. However, if you try to popularize drones to deliver couriers in the future, you will have to consider this issue. The birth of this new profession is not only It will lead to the dilemma of increasing costs, delaying the speed of transportation and damaging the reputation of e-commerce. It will have a great impact on the security and stability of the entire society.
Once a drone hunter is born, it will inevitably produce a series of black industries. In order to make profits, after capturing the drone, it will naturally find a way to sell it, and the black market of the drone will come into being. The black market can systematically format illegal drones and sell them to consumers for profit. There will even be a consumer who will inform the black market of the target and obtain high-end drones at a low price by the hunter. These three parties can form a new trading circle and greatly plunder the drone market. At that time, it will not only be e-commerce and logistics, but the order of the regular drone market will be seriously chaotic.
Jiangshan is easy to change, nature is difficult to move, and self-interest is the starting point of most people's behaviors and activities. Just being profitable is enough to blur the boundaries of self-interest and altruism, attracting everyone to follow suit and fearless adventure. Technology can make product performance perfect, but can block the greed and desire of these people?
Perhaps industrial applications are the future direction of drones.Technology, safety, humanity and supervision are important pressures to work together on drones. No matter which aspect is out of touch, it may cause the drone consumption market to decrease and prevent drones from flying freely. On the contrary, in some specific areas where there are a lot of people and people or major dangers, the drone can replace the human beings to complete the task with higher efficiency. These are the applications of industrial drones.
Industrial-grade drones refer to drones for corporate and government public services, with different functions depending on industry needs. Compared with consumer drones, its two absolute advantages determine its future development prospects.
First, it is highly malleable, with many sub-divisions, and it can develop a large market. As can be seen from the figure, industrial-grade UAVs are more useful in agriculture and forestry plant protection, disaster monitoring, and urban planning. On the contrary, the applicable field of consumer-grade UAVs is aerial photography. Agricultural plant protection is currently the largest market for industrial-grade drones. It is estimated that the market scale exceeds 10 billion yuan. According to the calculation of pesticide use in China and Japan, if China reaches the current penetration rate and frequency of use of plant protection drones in Japan, the annual update volume will be For 30,000 aircraft, the price of plant protection unmanned aircraft is estimated at 500,000 yuan/frame, and the annual market size can reach 15 billion yuan. The market scale in other fields can be seen.
Second, the applicable areas are low-risk and the policy risks are small. The US FAA issued a regulation on small drones on June 21, stipulating that small drones should not fly above the crowd or outside the operator's line of sight, which limits the commercial use of drones. Although China has not yet issued specific industry regulations, according to the reaction of the US government, it is conceivable that after China’s long-term policy aphasia after the popularization of drones, what attitude will it be.
On the contrary, China is much more active in promoting the use of industrial-grade drones. Similar to the "State Grid Corporation transmission line helicopter, drone and manual collaborative inspection mode pilot work program" work plan continued to be issued, the policy subsidies for agricultural and forestry plant protection drones are also implemented, which are derived from industrial-grade drones High technical threshold, strong technical orientation, and small threats.
At present, the UAV body itself as a carrier, regardless of any industry's combination depends on its own performance, and endurance, control systems, data transmission and other aspects of technical flaws, and its distant future, It is better to choose a good direction, to improve the performance of the body around this, and to occupy the commanding heights of the market when it is applied to scale.
Although the price of industrial-grade UAVs has always been criticized, according to the market law, with the expansion of the market in the future, the technology continues to improve, the enterprises compete with each other, the price will inevitably decline, and the performance of industrial-grade UAVs Will gradually improve, so the price will not be an obstacle to the development of industrial-grade UAVs in the future. In the near future, the drone technology will certainly be inclined to industrial applications.
In short, fish and bear's paw can't have both. In terms of drone application, consumer and industrial choices will be confused by entrepreneurs or investors for a long time, but any emerging product is easy to face. A kind of dilemma, and with the changes of the times, the transformation of consciousness or the emergence of new technologies, may lead to the integration of drones and a certain field, and open a new chapter, which makes people unexpected. The various problems faced by drones may be the variables and opportunities of the future.
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