Which of the two "1000" small targets of Lei Jun is more reliable?

At the 2016 Xiaomi company annual meeting, Lei Jun said that the most difficult time for Xiaomi has passed, and released the words, 2017 Xiaomi company's revenue will exceed 100 billion. Recently, Lei Jun once again released a "small goal", this time is to open 1,000 Xiaomi home, to develop Xiaomi "new retail" territory. So, which "1000" is more reliable?

First, 2017 millet company's revenue should exceed 100 billion

According to the data disclosed by Xiaomi, the overall revenue of Xiaomi Company in 2015 was 78 billion, an increase of 5%. Although Xiaomi has no 2016 results, according to data released by IDC and other third-party data organizations, sales of Xiaomi mobile phone market in 2016 plummeted by about 36%. The increase in the mobile phone can't be expected. It can only look at the revenue growth brought by Xiaomi's home. After all, this is also the sector that Lei Jun has high hopes for.

According to Lei Jun, the first batch of Xiaomi homes has achieved an average sales of 260,000 yuan per square meter. At the end of 2016, 54 millet homes have been opened. Based on an average of 100 square meters, 54 millet homes have just reached 1.4 billion in revenue a year, far from offsetting the impact of the collapse in mobile phone sales. Based on this, the author guessed that Xiaomi's 2016 revenue may not hold 78 billion.

In 2017, it has entered the second month, and Xiaomi wants to achieve substantial revenue growth. There are only two possibilities.

First, the sales of mobile phones have increased substantially, winning by volume.

Second, the price of mobile phones has risen sharply.

These two points are also what Xiaomi wants to solve now. The growth of mobile phone sales is either a rapid growth of the market, or a strong product of its own products, which erodes the living space of competing products. In 2016, China's smartphone market grew slowly, but Android smartphone sales reached its peak. Under such circumstances, Xiaomi's mobile phone delivered fierce results. According to reports from agencies such as IDC, the era of rapid growth in China's smartphone market has passed, and current mainstream products are still priced below $400. In other words, any mobile phone company that wants to raise and raise prices will become very difficult. It is a pity that Xiaomi mobile phone has no ability to erode the share of competing products. Therefore, in 2016 Lei Jun repeatedly stressed that the media should pay attention to Xiaomi's "black technology." However, according to the 2016 products, the black technology that Xiaomi has rendered is not as expected. When it comes to black technology, it is nothing more than to raise prices, but consumers do not pay the bill, the data has given the answer.

Looking at the overseas market, Xiaomi also failed to establish its due advantage. The Indian market has always been the benchmark for internationalization. However, according to IDC data, in 2016, Xiaomi mobile phone has not yet entered the TOP5 of the Indian mobile phone market. As for the developed markets in Europe and the United States, there is no millet any thing. The domestic brands that can be said in the European and American markets are currently counting Huawei.

Therefore, at present, Xiaomi’s 100 billion revenue in 2017 is still difficult.

Second, open 1,000 millet homes

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When it comes to Xiaomi's home, many people may not be unfamiliar. For example, the north and the west and the more developed provincial capitals, the traces of Xiaomi's home are not difficult to find, but the impression may not be too deep.

In the past few years, Xiaomi was in the wind and swayed by the wind, laughing and watching the competition. In the words of Lei Jun, the pigs standing in the wind will fly. However, as the competitors catch up, the glory of Xiaomi is rapidly fading away, from anxiety to loss, but only two or three years, watching Huawei, OPPO, vivo and other latecomers make waves.

From the leading to the backward, the change is not a major change in Xiaomi's products and marketing. However, Xiaomi puts too much energy on the line, so that he ignores the offline layout of competitors. The sudden fall of Xiaomi is also the reason. Now, Xiaomi is completely behind Huawei and other manufacturers. Lei Jun and Xiaomi are completely awakened, and they must engage in "offline", which is the "new retail" in Lei Junkou.

Re-layout the line means that Xiaomi needs to open up a new battlefield and need more funds to invest in the offline. For Xiaomi, which is currently in a downward trend, the 54 Xiaomi homes in 2016 are not too big a problem, and even the goals of 200 in 2017 are not a problem. However, the development process of Xiaomi Home must be closely related to the overall situation of Xiaomi Company. The success of Xiaomi Home must be based on the influence of Xiaomi brand. When consumers are no longer interested in Xiaomi products, more Xiaomi homes are also To no avail, even bring a greater burden. If Xiaomi continues to fall into the predicament of sales and share plunging, Xiaomi will inevitably not become the last straw to crush Xiaomi.

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Lei Jun also recently said that Xiaomi is already a pig lying on the ground. No one can beat them. Huawei’s success today should be thanks to Xiaomi. I think this sentence is not a problem. For the Chinese smartphone market, Xiaomi is the pioneer of the times and the earliest subversive in the industry. Xiaomi has explored a mature and feasible Internet marketing methodology for traditional players such as Huawei and OPPO. From this point of view, Huawei, OPPO and other manufacturers really should thank Xiaomi.

However, it is a pity that when Xiaomi’s tricks were stolen, Xiaomi did not learn from the successful experience of the competitors, and finally became the “church of the church, starving the master”.

Therefore, it is not very meaningful to discuss 1000 Xiaomi homes now. It is more appropriate to discuss this issue in 2018.

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