The core “in-depth learning†of artificial intelligence (AI) has been continuously introduced into the automotive supply chain, 5G and lithium battery charging technologies. Fubon Securities believes that the future automobile will become autonomous, connected, and electrified. The three major trends have led to huge business opportunities for Taiwan's technology companies.
The CES (Consumer Electronics Show) held in Las Vegas in January each year is an important indicator of technological trends. In recent years, major IT giants and depots have integrated new energy vehicles, car networking applications, and various types of automated driving applications. , making it the CES focus, and even let CES have another literal meaning (Car Electronics Shows). Fubon Securities pointed out that when the automotive industry moves from traditional machinery to the field of science and technology, it will provide tremendous development opportunities for Taiwan’s electronic technology industry.
Observe the development of auto-pilot software and Hardware. No matter how deep learning, visual recognition and sophisticated road map funding systems are not fully matured, plus legal and insurance regulations, experts estimate that it can be completely under any road and weather conditions. Self-driving Level 5 cars will not begin to enter the market until 2028. Before that, ADAS and ConnectedCar will build self-drive sensory systems and communication systems, respectively, to gradually realize the goal of automatic driving.
At the same time, electric vehicles are bound to become a trend as governments in various countries require energy conservation and carbon reduction. Since 2025, the Netherlands, Norway, etc. will ban the sale of fuel vehicles, while Germany, the United Kingdom, France also follow up from 2030 to 2040, this policy forced traditional car manufacturers to invest heavily in the development of their own new electric vehicles. Electric vehicles not only use electric energy instead of fuel-driven vehicles. Compared with conventional internal-combustion vehicles, a large number of electronic components in electric vehicles are the basic components of electric drives, and they also accelerate the automobile's move towards intelligence and networking. Tesla is the best example.
In other words, the automobile will be driven by the three major trends of “AI, vehicle networking, and electrificationâ€, which will cause major changes in the automotive supply chain and the product itself. According to forecasts by research institutions, the annual sales volume of the three major automotive markets in the United States, Europe and Mainland China, which are more than Level 2 electric cars, will rapidly grow to 81 million by 2030, gradually replacing the current commercial fuels car.
Electric self driving in the land
Fubon Securities pointed out that the mainland's science and technology industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and electric self-driving has become one of the development priorities of the market. According to its “Smart Car Innovation and Development Strategy†opinion draft, it aims to reach 50% of new smart car vehicles by 2020. In 2035, it will be the first to become a smart car powerhouse. The PWC report also assessed that mainland China will surpass the United States and Europe as the largest electric self-driving market in 2030. It is clear that policy incentives and huge demand markets in mainland China are a major advantage for the development of electric self-driving cars.
Indeed, when the Chinese technology giants are all investing in the development of electric self-driving cars, Baidu has released more than 90 international technology giants to participate in the Apollo 2.0 self-driving platform. Tencent and Alibaba also participate in depot cooperation and put into electric cars and car networking. investment. In addition, new entrepreneurs such as Baiteng and Xiaopeng Electric Vehicles at the CES show also made the market watchful. It is foreseeable that China’s position in the electric self-drive market will become increasingly important.
Automotive networking components benefit
According to the IEK report, the current global automotive electronics output value is approximately US$250 billion. With the trend of auto-automation, electrification and networking, it is estimated that the output value will exceed US$350 billion by 2025, including automotive power and automotive. The safest growth in output value will undoubtedly bring huge business opportunities to Taiwan's semiconductor and electronic components.
Fubon Securities pointed out that the key components of the electric self-driving car can be divided into four major systems: drive, electric energy, sensing and line control. The former two are the core of constructing the electric self-driving power system; sensing and control are Let electric self-driving become an intelligent, even unmanned, vital system.
First, the drive system is mainly composed of an electric motor, a transmission system, and related controllers, and this part has a large space for the motor industry. Second, the power system includes a battery, a power module, an energy management system, and a charging device. With the evolution of automotive electronics and power trends, automotive voltage will also be converted from the current 12V to 48V voltage system, and the related specifications of electronic power components will change. This part will be a long-term profit for power devices (MOSFET & IGBT).
Finally, the "sensing and control system" can be divided into car processor, AI computing chip, memory, sensing element/module and vehicle networking device. The car processor must have high-order processing performance, process high-speed arithmetic chips, integrate sensor information, perform deep learning and car route planning procedures, and use sensors of different types to perform power output and energy use. The functions of regulation, security protection and driving assistance are collected to collect data to provide the environmental information required by the ADAS sub-system, and to compensate for the driver’s lack of awareness of the environment through audio and video warnings, or the autonomous regulation of the vehicle; In the past, mechanical sensors such as gyroscopes, accelerometers, and advanced non-contact sensing technologies such as ultrasonics, image lenses, radar, and optical radars were used.
Electronic Technology Industry Found New Blue Ocean
Fubon Securities pointed out that the automotive industry that has been developing for more than 100 years has already formed a large and closed ecosystem. However, when Google, NVIDIA, Intel, Tesla and other companies entered the automotive market, new automotive designs have given new impetus to technology electronics manufacturers. , Taiwan's electronic technology manufacturers have been making great efforts to deploy the automotive electronics market for many years and finally have the opportunity to see the results. According to the ITRI estimates, Taiwan’s automotive electronics output value will exceed 220 billion yuan this year, and it will challenge 278.6 billion yuan in 2020, which is faster than the average global industry. Investors are advised to pay attention to the car-electricity group that has already entered the Tesla supply chain and the subsequent growth of automotive IC, sensors and power components.
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