2012 "Industrial Blue Book": PV market will start large-scale next year

The "Industrial Blue Book" published by the Institute of Industrial Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, "Power Industry Competitiveness Report," said that China's wind power industry has entered a large-scale development stage. The photovoltaic power generation industry market will start large-scale, and low-carbon development will be China. The only way for the development of the power industry.

The report stated that China’s wind power has entered a large-scale development stage and the characteristics of “large-scale development, centralized construction, and long-distance transmission” developed by China’s wind power will continue.

According to the report, according to China's “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” wind power plan, the total installed capacity is 100 million kilowatts, and the long-term plan for 2020 is 180 million kilowatts. As of the end of 2010, the total installed capacity has reached 44 million kilowatts, which means that before the introduction of new plans, the tasks for the period 2011 to 2015 will be 56 million kilowatts, and the new installed capacity for 2011 to 2020 will be 136 million kilowatts.

“According to the next five years, the average annual rate is 11.2 million kilowatts, and in the 10-year period, it will be 13.6 million kilowatts per year. The integration of wind power will become the top priority of the 12th Five-Year Plan period through the construction of a smart grid. It is estimated that by 2015 China's wind power consumption will exceed 90 million kilowatts, and by 2020 it will reach 150 million kilowatts or more,” the report said.

The report also pointed out that China's photovoltaic power generation market will start on a large scale. According to the report, the National Development and Reform Commission determined the nationwide benchmark price of photovoltaic power grids this year, which was 1.15 yuan/kWh in 2010 and 1 yuan/kWh thereafter, which is a signal for China's photovoltaic power generation market to start.

“The start-up of the domestic photovoltaic market will begin in regions with abundant solar energy resources and strong power grid capacity.” According to the report, according to the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the development of solar photovoltaic industry (opinion), the installed capacity of solar power is to 2015 It reaches 10 million kilowatts a year, 2 million kilowatts a year, and 50 million kilowatts in 2020. The market concentration of China's photovoltaic industry will be significantly increased. Industry consolidation will bring about new market structural changes for the photovoltaic industry, breaking the current disorderly and low-margin competition.

“In this process, leading companies are expected to benefit significantly. The entry barrier for polysilicon will be further enhanced. The integrated power consumption of solar grade polysilicon projects will be lower than 120 kWh/kg, which means that 10,000 tons of polysilicon will be able to be produced under existing conditions. Achieved, the scale advantages of 10,000-ton-level manufacturers appear," the report said.

At the same time, the report believes that China has now become the country with the highest total carbon dioxide emissions in the world. "China's carbon dioxide emissions mainly come from the energy sector, of which the power system is the main emitter. Under the background of global warming, the power industry is bound to become the focus of carbon dioxide emission reduction, and low-carbon development is the only way for the power industry."

In the power system, carbon emissions mainly come from the power production link, that is, the power generation link. In 2009, carbon emissions from power generation reached about 94.8%, and the share of carbon emissions caused by power grid line loss was about 2.3%. The proportion of carbon emissions from coal transportation was about 2.9%.

“The proportion of carbon emissions from power generation in China is too high. On the one hand, China is mainly based on thermal power. More than 90% of coal-fired power is coal-fired electricity. On the other hand, it is mainly caused by high average coal consumption of power supply, compared with the average level of developed countries in the world. The average coal consumption of coal-fired power plants in China is 10g higher than that of the coal-fired power plants in China, although China’s power generation efficiency has been greatly improved over the past, and it has the world’s largest ultra-supercritical technology coal-fired power plant, but the existence of many small-scale coal-fired power plants, Makes the coal consumption in the power generation link higher," the report said.

The report cited foreign data that compared to major foreign developed countries, China’s total carbon emissions from power generation are much higher than those of Japan, Germany, and France, and its carbon emissions from power generation per unit of electricity exceeds that of major developed countries in the world. In 2008, China's carbon emissions per 10,000 kWh were 2.01 tons, which was 1.22 times that of the United States, 1.5 times that of Germany, 1.7 times that of Japan, and 12.6 times that of France. Since 2001, the transmission line loss rate of China's power grids has shown a declining trend.

The data shows that in 2009, the transmission line loss rate of the power grid was reduced by 0.24 percentage point from the previous year, and it was reduced to 6.55%. According to calculations, as total annual power generation in China continues to increase, the total amount of carbon emissions in power transmission links also shows an upward trend. Compared with the major developed countries in the world, in 2007, China’s carbon emissions are higher than those of France, Germany, and Japan in the power transmission sector. , slightly lower than the United States.

but. The carbon emissions per unit power transmission link exceeds that of the world's major developed countries. In 2007, the carbon emissions per kWh of electricity transmission in China were 0.049 tons, which was 1.3 times that of the United States, 2.05 times that of Germany, 2.26 times that of Japan, and 11 times that of France.