At the 2016 China International OLED Industry Conference held from June 30th to July 1st, Professor Deng Qingyun, the father of OLED, publicly stated that OLED will eventually replace LCD as the most important display technology in the future. But he did not talk about the time, maybe ten or twenty years, or maybe longer.
With the drop in the cost of OLED panels, the increase in yield, and the improvement in performance and productivity, the OLED industry will usher in a period of rapid development. However, due to the lack of technology research and development capabilities, most of the key raw materials and equipment required by domestic panel makers also rely on imports. From this point of view, OLED seems to be close to us, and it seems to be far away from us.
How close is OLED to us?
The most closely connected electronic products with the average consumer, I am afraid that the number of mobile phones and television (parametric picture articles). Although Apple's official channel did not disclose the news about OLED products, but North Korea Yang Ming, general manager of Japan's Tech & Biz Co., Ltd., said that Apple will be in production in 2017 OLED products output is no secret.
In the process of OLEDs entering ordinary families, domestic TV maker Skyworth is one of the firm promoters of the popularization of OLED TVs. Sun Ruikun, a deputy director of Skyworth Group, said that in the fierce competition environment, Skyworth's OLED TV sales reached 20,000 units in 2015. In 2015, the global sales of OLED TVs were only over 400,000 units.
According to data from Ove Cloud Network, sales of OLED TVs in mainland China in the first quarter of 2016 soared by 194 percent year-on-year. It is expected that global OLED TV shipments will continue to increase significantly in 2016-2018, and will soar to 1.3 million units in 2016. Among them, the performance of the Chinese market is particularly prominent, and both 2016 and 2017 will continue to maintain a 400% growth rate.
Although the proportion of OLED TVs and mobile phones in the overall market is currently small, the penetration rate of OLED products in the Chinese market will increase significantly as the cost of OLED panels declines and production capacity increases. According to Li Yaqin, deputy general manager of Quzhi Consulting, in the fourth quarter of 2016, the penetration rate of AMOLED panels in the Chinese smartphone market will be close to 30%, which is higher than the penetration rate of around 20% in the global market. Moreover, the cost of OLED panels will gradually approach the cost of LCD panels, even lower than LCD costs in the foreseeable future.
How far is OLED from us?
Although the penetration rate of OLED products is increasing, the cost of OLED panels is also gradually declining, but this does not mean that foldable AMOLED screens will come into our lives so quickly.
Li Yaqin said that the fixed radius of curvature of AMOLED screens that will be currently available for production to Apple and VIVO is 5mm and the border is 0.7mm. The touchscreen part is still a glass cover. True foldable OLED panels should come to our lives after 2018, so flexibility is not as close as we think.
In addition to the global technological process and other reasons, the ability of the domestic panel makers to support the industry chain and patent short board is also an urgent issue to be solved in the promotion of OLED products in the Chinese market.
According to Jin Lei, deputy chief of the Electronic Foundations Division of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are still some problems in the display panel industry. Chinese companies have relatively weak industrial chain supporting capabilities. Most of the devices and materials of the high-generation panel basically rely on imports.
In addition, domestic panel makers can't ignore the shortcomings of OLED patents. Li Yaqin said that Samsung’s patents far surpass those of all other panel makers, reaching a level of more than 10,000, more than a dozen times more than domestic manufacturers. Domestic panel makers have not yet mass-produced flexible screens, once volume production will face patent issues in the international market. Qualcomm, Meizu, Huawei, and Apple’s patent lawsuits have shown that the lack of patents will allow companies to fall into a clear passive situation.
Jin Lei said that at present, from the perspective of the number of patents, China is ranked in a comparative position. Most patents are still in the hands of Japan, the United States, and South Korea. The OLED industry chain is relatively long. From materials, equipment, mid-stream panels to downstream applications, there are many patents and it is hoped that this will continue to do a good job.
Although there are already industry authorities who have “fixed†the issue of OLEDs, the game between LCD and OLED continues. From a certain perspective, the industry's game and people's arguments have played a role in promoting the development of OLED. How far away is OLED from us? How can we get closer to the middle distance? It will also find answers in the process of constant adjustment and debate.
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