White Appliances Continue to Grow Air-conditioning Rural Market Outbreak

According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Commerce, the sales of retail and catering enterprises monitored by the Ministry of Commerce from January 1 to October 7 were approximately RMB 696.2 billion, an increase of 17.5% over the “Eleventh” Golden Week in 2010, and the Spring Festival gold. The week is basically the same, slightly lower than the 18.7% growth rate at the low base of the 2010 National Day, but it still shows a good trend.

According to the analysis of relevant industry sources, the marginal effect of home appliances to the countryside is declining, and it is expected that after the policy is withdrawn, the impact of various categories of household appliances will also be different. The popularity of rural air conditioners and small household appliances has only just started, and the subsequent new demand is the most rigid; the rural household holding ratio of ice-washing color TVs has been relatively high, and the degree of prosperity in the future mainly depends on the replacement requirements. In the post-policy era, where competition tends to be normal, leading companies are expected to gain more market share through product, brand, and channel advantages. The start of the rural air-conditioning market is more based on the influence of the internal law of increasing rural residents' income levels. The policy of home appliances to the countryside is an external factor that stimulates the start of the rural market.

According to the analysis of marketers in some areas, the air-conditioning market has been fully erupted under the influence of three factors: First, the state-owned appliance replacement policy for five-category products is about to expire, so it is more cost-effective to grab air-conditioning before “break-ins”. Second, the arrival of the wedding peak, rigid demand has become a direct stimulus, many consumers rush to buy new or replacement of the "11" promotion node. Thirdly, the consumers who bought the coins in the previous period and released their demand for home improvement products formed a strong purchasing power.

Home Appliances to Rural Areas Withdraw from Home Appliances Sales Growth in Some Provinces and Cities

According to relevant data, in September, a total of 9.08 million units of home appliances sold to the countryside were sold, a year-on-year increase of 50% and a 30.5% increase from the previous period; sales in September reached 24.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67% and a 29.7% increase from the previous quarter.

The trend of slowing down the growth rate of home appliances in the first few months of the year has seen a year-on-year growth. The growth rate of the chain has also been negative from the same period last year; we believe that this is mainly due to the arrival of the consumption peak before the policy withdrawal and can also be seen at the same time. The demand for rural home appliances still has great potential. According to the reporter of the Refrigeration Express, the sales of home appliances to the countryside in the three provinces of Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan, which will exit the home appliance policy at the end of November this year, increased by more than 30% month-on-month, a strong increase. It is expected that in the next two months, consumers in the three provinces are expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by the concentrated consumption of the last train in the policy.

Raw material prices fall, sales of home appliance products keep growing but uncertainty increases

In 2011, the profit growth rate of China's home appliance products was significantly slower than that of income growth. In the first 7 months of 2011, China’s household electrical appliances revenue still maintained a relatively rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of 20.88%, but the growth rate of total household electrical appliance profits declined significantly, at only 2.66%. This shows that the prosperity of China's home appliance industry still maintains a good state, but due to the high price of raw materials and fierce competition, the overall profitability of China's home appliance industry is not optimistic.

The growth of sales volume in the third quarter is more noticeable than the slowdown in sales growth in the second quarter. At present, the sales of home appliances in China still maintain a certain growth rate, but the growth rate has fallen sharply compared to the same period of the previous year. In particular, sales growth in the third quarter of 2011 was lower than the growth rate in the second quarter of 2011, which is worth our attention. According to the reporter of Cooling Express, after China has implemented a stringent real estate control policy, the growth rate of China's commercial housing sales area is expected to return to normal, and the demand for home appliances may also slow down. In addition, the sovereign credit crisis in Europe and the United States has not yet passed, which makes China’s home appliances. There is still greater uncertainty in product exports.

The long-term growth momentum of the household appliance industry is still in place, but the short-term uncertainties have increased. According to relevant industry sources, in the long term, the purchasing power of household appliances in China's urban and rural areas will continue to grow at a rapid rate. The demand for "renewal" of home appliances in China is still growing. The demand for rural household appliances in China is still strong, but in the short term, China's home appliances There are several other factors in the industry's driving forces, but there is greater uncertainty: First, under the circumstances that the growth rate of commercial housing sales has returned to normal, there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the successful completion of affordable housing; There is uncertainty in the depth and breadth of the credit crisis. This has caused certain uncertainty in the export volume of home appliances in China. Third, under the circumstances of a slowdown in global economic growth and excess global liquidity, there are certain trends in commodity prices. Uncertainty.